Nats Receive “Bad” News Re: Strasburg

I Hope This Guy Has Some Really Thick Skin

A couple pieces of news regarding Nationals #1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg came out today.

First was the news that Strasburg received a couple of awards at the inaugural College Baseball Foundation Awards. Strasburg earned the player of the year AND the pitcher of the year awards solidifying that he was the unquestioned best player available in this year’s first-year player’s draft.

It was noted that Strasburg seemed to be taking it all in and looking back over his year and his career at San Diego State University.

But like a good Scott Boras client, Strasburg offered this quote despite not even being close to signing with the Nationals, "There's always another day. Anything can happen. You've just got to take every new day as a blessing and go from there. It's been a great experience but at the same time I'm sure I'm going to have a lot of fun for many years to come playing baseball."

The question is: where will he be having “a lot of fun for many years to come playing baseball."

In an article in the Washington Post this morning, Dave Sheinen (with contributions from Chico Harlan) reports that Strasburg’s agent – Scott Boras – intends to use Strasburg much in the same way he used J.D. Drew back in the late 1990’s to break apart MLB’s drafting system.

Boras makes some good points in that American and Canadian born players are forced into the draft where players are inserted into the “slotting system” that MLB has used for keeping rookie salaries in check. Meanwhile, there seems to be no checks and balances on foreign born players. Clubs are free to open an academy anywhere in the world and sign players for whatever they want. With the wealth of academies in the Dominican Republic, teams often will overpay a young, unknown player just to get him to the academy while an American or Canadian kid must enter the draft and is at the mercy of the slotting system.

There does seem to be a genuine unfair advantage for the non-American/Canadian born players. Even worse, Puerto Rico is considered an American territory, so a Puerto Rican child is subject to the same rules as the American or Canadian kids despite the severe disadvantage of under-exposure.

The big loophole here is that Cuban defectors and Japanese players are also considered free-agents despite very well-developed professional teams and leagues in both countries. This is where Boras will hang his hat.

Should the Nationals fail to sign Strasburg for the asking price of somewhere in the neighborhood of FIFTY MILLION DOLLARS (despite the fact that no player has ever received more than 10.5 million) then he will take his prized commodity to Japan and let him play there for one year before becoming a free agent for MLB.
Sounds like a great plan – except that due to recent pirating of Japanese players by teams in MLB; Strasburg, surrounded by all this hype regarding what he’s doing, is not likely to be picked up by a Japanese team knowing that he fully intends on using them.

Nippon Professional Baseball’s marketing director Iratu Kobayashi explains:

"This will do more harm than good to the NPB club. [Strasburg] will not be welcomed, neither by the teammates or the media," Kobayashi said. "It is not easy to sympathize with a guy who comes to Japan just as [part of] a negotiation process to squeeze more millions out of [an MLB] club."

"We would not do what we do not want others to do to us," Kobayashi said, "unless we really have to do so."

Combine this with the legal battle plus the anti-trust exemption for MLB and this could get messy – REALLY messy. Not signing with the Nationals could be the least of Strasburg’s worries.

Thing is, Boras tried this with J.D. Drew using the independent leagues which, since they pay their players, is considered “professional” baseball. Boras argued that since Drew was then a professional baseball player he was no longer eligible for the “amateur” draft. MLB’s response was to change the name (without consult of the union) to the “first year player’s” draft.
The union argued on behalf of Drew but ultimately was shot down since the union represents the MLB players and Drew was not a union member.

If you can recall the career of J.D. Drew, he never really turned out to be the superstar Boras was hoping for and he never really seemed to be able to handle all of the grief he received for trying to be the guy to break the system – and it’s not like we’re talking about Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier here, this is just a guy who didn’t like the drafting system. J.D. Drew is a decent player, but he’s nothing special. Perhaps his legacy would’ve paved the way for Strasburg had he been a superstar player.

As it stands now, Strasburg is willing to be pawn #2 for Scott Boras. Perhaps he should talk to J.D. drew and ask him how to better handle the situation. Drew never recovered from the turmoil and baseball as a sport will suffer if Strasburg fails to live up to what everyone thinks he should be just because his renegade agent wants has a vendetta against MLB.

Better yet, maybe he should talk to J.D. Drew and find out if it’s even worth the trouble.

So Long Lastings and “Way Back” Hanrahan

Welcome to Washington, Mr. Morgan. We Hope You Enjoy Your Stay.

Hello Nyjer Morgan and your world class stirrups. The Nats traded for you and your teammate Sean Burnett and gave up two players who have given us fits over the past six months.

"We are open for business," said a happy Mike Rizzo, the Nationals' acting general manager. "We improved two of our greatest needs. We have a great character guy in Morgan. We have our center fielder. Even though he will be 29 in two days, he plays better than most younger men."

In return the Pirates received the volatile Lastings Milledge who created a whole host of problems, not the least of which was not playing CF very well – the reason the Nats acquired him in the first place.

The Pirates also got Joel Hanrahan who has been the Nats closer twice and demoted from the role twice. The most recent outing for Hanrahan was a disaster in Baltimore which probably sealed his fate as trade-bait.

Morgan appears to be no more than one of those “tweeners” that vascillate between AAA and the major leagues. He’s 29, so it’s not like the Nats got younger. Morgan appears to be the CF of remainder of the 2009 season which could help solidify the outfield defense. He’s instantaneously better than anyone on the roster to play CF.

Sean Burnett will certainly take Hanrahan’s spot in the bullpen and probably help to improve an anemic relief corps. Even if Burnett is less than advertised, he cannot be worse tha Hanrahan.

With the acquisition of Mike Morse from Seattle earlier, I have to think the end is near for Ronnie Belliard as well. Morse is a serviceable backup and makes less money than Belliard (not to mention can’t play any worse defense). Also, the acquisition of Morgan might free up some room in the outfield for a trade of either Josh Willingham or Adam Dunn. Of course, rumors still swirl around a possible trade involving Nick Johnson who was pursued by the A’s in the off-season and lately there are whispers that the Mets are asking about Johnson. Should that happen, I’d imagine that Dunn moves to 1B (which, in my opinion, is an awful mistake) and we are left with a very serviceable outfiled of Willingham, Morgan and Elijah Dukes.

No matter what the scenario, I think this is not the last we hear of the Nationals on the trade front in 2009.

Upcoming Schedule: Favorable?

Well with exactly two weeks to go until the assumed half-way point to the regular season, the Nats have FINALLY started playing a bit better winning seven of their last 12 games including a three game sweep against the Yankees in New York and taking two-of-three from a very good Toronto team.

What they need now though is to keep on playing that way. Unfortunately they take on the team that just seems to have their number: The Florida Marlins – and they play them in Miami.

After that they’re looking at a three game set at home against the Braves then they wrap up their first half with three in Colorado and “five” in Houston (a scheduled four game series plus the rain-suspended game from earlier in which the Nats will be the “home” team despite the game being played in Houston).

After dropping their first three in Houston to start the month of June, the Rockies have gone on a tear winning 20 out of their last 23 games to pull five games over .500 and only five games back of the NL West leading LA Dodgers (I can’t help but notice this streak coincides with the firing of their manager Clint Hurlde).

The Astros are currently only 3 games under .500 and only four games behind the NL Central co-leaders Milwaukee and St. Louis. A five game set against the worst team in the majors could really help boost their confidence going into the All-Star break.

And despite being five games under .500, the Braves are only five games behind the NL East leading Phillies.

So while the Nats play some teams that are historically beatable, they do face opponents in desperate need of some wins to stay in contention and probably licking their collective chops seeing the Nats on their schedules.

The Fish just got swept by Tampa Bay and need the games to keep pace with the Phillies, the Braves have a really tough schedule: three with the Phillies, then three with the Nats, three at Chicago to play the Cubs and then a four game set in Colorado to face the previously noted streaking Rockies.

The Rockies have a tough series with the Dodgers starting tonight then they get the Diamondbacks, Nats and Atlanta to finish up. They could literally be in first place by the All-Star break and, as such, are not likely to take the Nats lightly.

The Astros have a relatively easy schedule leading up to the break as well which could help vault them to the top of their division: they start tonight with a four-game set against San Diego, then they play a tough three game set at San Francisco before wrapping up with eight games in Houston against the Pirates and Nationals.

Despite the fact that the Nats play their remaining games against teams who are either under .500 or teams less than six games over .500, they all have a sense of purpose in every game they play. In this economy, at this time of year, a losing streak to a team like the Nats can drastically alter plans and turn buyers into sellers in the trade market. Since none of these teams want to give up on their seasons, they are probably looking to take advantage of the Nats as they continue slugging through a forgettable season.

However, as I opened with: the Nats are playing better lately and have played the tough American League eastern division and played them well. Perhaps they too can take advantage of their upcoming schedule and spoil some seasons early in July? Who knows?

But despite the relative ease of schedule, I’m guessing the Nats are going to have to bring their “A-game” every night against these teams hungry for wins anywhere they can find them.

O's Series A Disaster - Olsen Off DL - I Need More Willie Harris

Seriously? What Does This Guy Have To Do To Get The Starting CF Job?

So the weekend didn’t go according to Hoyle, but at least the boys salvaged a game from the Orioles. More importantly, John Lannan continued his comeback after a disastrous start to 2009.

Lannan has gone five straight games pitching at least 6 innings (9 IP, 6 IP, 8 1/3 IP, 6 1/3 IP and 7 1/3 IP yesterday) and has gone 3-0 with two no decisions over those five games.

While Lannan has certainly picked up his game after his tough start, Shairon Martis has slumped. Martis was optioned to AAA Syracuse after the Nationals win over the Orioles on Sunday. The move does come as a bit of a surprise since Nationals field reporter Debbie Taylor announced that Craig Stammen would be moved to the bullpen to make room for Scott Olsen coming off of the disabled list. The reaction around Natstown was that one of the struggling bullpen guys would get the axe (DFA-style) and it would either be Joel Hanrahan or Jesus Colome. But Acting G.M. Mike Rizzo optioned the young Martis to AAA saying, “Shairon has to go down and do what got him to the big leagues -- pound the strike zone, execute his pitches and get ahead of the hitters.”

The bigger news though is that Olsen makes his comeback start against his old mates tomorrow night at 7:10. Olsen has lost a lot of velocity since late last season and the Nats are really hoping he can regain what was lost and lead this group of young starters.

"I need to see more consistency out of him," Nats manager Manny Acta said. "I want to see the guy that pitched 200 innings for the Marlins. He is supposed to lead these kids. He is the oldest one out of all of them."

With Olsen said to be ready to go 100 pitches against the Marlins, it’s imperative he gets ahead and stays ahead of Marlin hitters. Olsen will be on a very strict pitch count (more than likely anyway) since it’s his first start back from the DL.

Now that we got the facts out of the way; in my opinion, the Nationals really need to change their philosophy about how to use their pitchers. In the announcement of Martis’s demotion, Mike Rizzo said, "it's about taking care of the young pitchers.”

That can be taken a few different ways. How is pulling your young pitchers after an artificially derived pitch count only to have them sit and watch this bullpen cough up their leads night after night after night “taking care of them?” Seems to me they’d be doing them a better service leaving them out there to fight their own fight a few times. Let these kids go 7 innings – routinely – and see what they’re made of. Stop handing their leads over to the likes of Colome and Hanrahan and Julian Tavarez.

The real problem the Nationals have is that the Front Office has bred a culture of acceptable losing. The path they took asked us to be patient while the young kids develop. That’s all well and good, but their development is being stunted by pulling them after five or six innings. Or in the case of position players, they aren’t allowing the kids who can or should be here long term to stay in the lineup with any consistency. They sent Lastings Milledge to the minors after asking him to play a position he was clearly uncomfortable playing, Elijah Dukes is often benched in favor of Josh Willingham or Austin Kearns. When Dukes does play, he’s also asked to play CF when he’s probably more of a corner outfielder.

And while I’m complaining about position players, can’t we get Willie Harris some more playing time please? He’s easily the best defensive outfielder we have and he’s proven time and time again that he produces when called upon. Take care of your young pitchers and put the best defensive unit on the field that you can while maximizing your offensive production.

Predictions On This Weekend's "Battle of the Beltway" Series

I think this guy has a HUGE series this weekend

So here we go, my first official post regarding the subject at hand. I’ve decided to focus on the upcoming series with the Orioles instead of relishing the in the victory over the Red Sox.

First thing to do is to break down the pitching matchups:

Tonight it’s Ross Detwiler v. Brad Bergesen. Detwiler makes his eighth start and has yet to earn a victory (0-3 4.76) but pitched effectively in his only other appearance vs. the Orioles allowing one run on one hit over six innings. He walked four – his second highest total this season. At this point, Detwiler needs to focus on timing and mechanics. His fastball (which seems to top out at about 94) is not overpowering, so the changeup he’s been working on will need to become a useful out pitch instead of something just for show. He relies on a sinker right now which can be a deadly pitch for young pitchers who tend to leave the ball up in the zone; hopefully “Det” keeps the ball DOWN in the zone. He faces Brad Bergesen who according to sportsnet: “has a feel for pitching and the ability to log a lot of innings. [He’s] a strike-thrower with good command of his arsenal.” Bergesen (like Detwiler) also features a sinker which he needs to keep down in order to succeed. Bottom line here? Unfortunately, I like the fact that Bergesen has pitched against the tougher American League and the Nats offense has been down a little lately, so I like Bergesen and the Orioles here. Prediction: Orioles 6 – Nats: 2.

Tomorrow night features Shairon Martis v. Jeremy Guthrie. Martis was perhaps Washington’s “luckiest” pitcher, starting the season 5-0 including one of Washington’s two complete games on the season. He carried a high ERA to this point and has slipped to 5-2 and his last start against Toronto was shaky. Still, he’s only 22 and has given the Nationals some hope that they may have a middle of the rotation type starter. Jeremy Guthrie (recently featured in a great article on “The Onion”) has struggled this year. He’s described by his coaches as “crafty” and uses deception to get by. Still, he’s a right-hander and the Nats’ big hitters perform better against righties. Guthrie is also prone to the “gopher ball” as described on sportsnet so I look for Adam Dunn to homer in this game. Prediction: Nationals 9 – Orioles 6.

The series wraps up on Sunday with John Lannan v. Koji Uehara. The Orioles will face two lefties this series in Detwiler and Lannan and Lannan has pitched much better lately. He’s had four quality starts (I hate that stat) in a row and he went 8 1/3 against the Yankees and he pitched the second of the Nationals’ two complete games on June 6th against the Mets. According to baseball-reference.com, the Orioles are only hitting .263 as a team against left-handed pitching as opposed to .274 vs. righties, but they hit .300 against what they call “finesse” pitchers (which is what I would call Lannan) as opposed to only .229 against “power” pitchers. Lannan will need to mix his pitches well – exactly how he pitched against the Mets – in order to succeed here. According to the Kamado Report, Koji Uehara has a “low-grade fastball (90-91), with an array of breaking pitches, including two different splitters, a cutter and a slider” in his arsenal. The Report also postulates that Uehara is indicative of most Japanese pitchers who display much more breaking balls because of the more liberal strike zone in the Japanese leagues. Uehara will have to do his best to keep the Nats offense off-balance because the Nats do have some big sticks in the lineup. Also, according to XM-175’s show Power Alley with Seth Everett and Bill Ripken who are interviewing Orioles manager Dave Tremblay at 11:40 a.m. on June 26th (right now), Koji Uehara is in Baltimore seeing the team doctor for elbow soreness – definitely not good for a pitcher who relies so heavily on breaking stuff. This recent development may also indicate why he’s only gone more than five innings once in his last five starts. Uehara is struggling and I’d expect the Nats to take advantage early and knock Uehara out by the fourth inning if he does pitch. Prediction: Nationals 13 – Orioles 8.

I’m expecting a lot of offense this weekend. With the DH in effect, the Nationals will be able to maximize their use of both Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham who is swinging a very hot bat lately (his last ten games has him hitting .296 with 2 HR and 6 RBI) and not have to compromise their outfield defense.

Of course, the offensive output for the Nats could rely on whether or not Nick Johnson plays. Johnson was hit by a pitch in the first inning of last night’s game. The pitch hit him on the shin and it swelled up to practically a softball sized lump. He was pulled from the game and his status is still pending. Hopefully for our boys, Johnson will be able to return quickly. A hitter of Johnson’s caliber should be able to hit Guthrie and Uehara and should help generate enough runs to outscore the Orioles.

But playing American League baseball against a young pitching staff may just be what the Nats need to kick-start this offense which was firing on all cylinders at the beginning of the season.

All in all, this most recent incarnation of “The Battle of the Beltway” should be entertaining. I see a lot of offense being scored in this series and I also see our boys taking two out of three from our rivals to the north.

Me and My Blog

Well, I thought I’d go ahead and give this whole blog thing a try.

So here’s the “rules” for my blog (at least as far as rules go for blogging):

1. I am a fan of the sport of baseball first and foremost. I live close to Cooperstown, NY and I enjoy reading about and researching the historical background of the game. At the end of the day, I root for baseball to succeed everywhere it is played: from little league to the Major Leagues and everywhere in between – professional and amateur.

2. I am a fan of the Washington Nationals. Sounds weird, I know, living in Upstate NY; but that’s me. Here’s the story of how I became a Nats fan: I grew up on Cape Cod surrounded by Red Sox fans. My father’s side of the family were from New Hampshire and grew up all Red Sox fans. My father (who’s middle name is Ferris as he was named after Red Sox pitcher “Boo” Ferris) decided he wanted to be different from everyone else and decided on his own to be a Yankee fan in New Hampshire. It was made easier by the fact that the Yankees were historically the best team at the time he was born (1940’s) and continued to be even until today. My mother’s side of the family was from the Washington, DC area – and as a result they were all either Senators or Orioles fans. When the second incarnation of the Senators moved to Texas, the remainder of the family became Oriole fans. Because I identified more with the mom’s family than with the dad’s family, I became a Redskins, Capitals and Bullets fan; but my father was the one who really liked baseball and got me into the sport I love so much today, so I decided to take on the Yankees as my favorite team, despite not liking the American League style of play. The 1980’s were some really lean years for the Yankees and the Red Sox fans (most of whom I considered “friends”) really let me have it (despite the fact that even then, they had a 60+ year drought of championships). I finally got my day in the sun in 1996 when the Yankees won it all and built a team with a core group of guys who were really worth rooting for: Jeter, Williams, Pettitte, Rivera, O’Neill, Martinez, etc. Then the downward spiral began. They started trading away their good young players and pillaging other teams by buying up superstars. They offended my sense of fair play. They cobbled together rosters with big names and no substance. They spent like drunken sailors and failed to care about the sport in general (a practice ongoing today). It got to the point where I actually rooted FOR THE RED SOX in 2003 because I was just so sick of it by that point. It was then I knew I needed a change. So in 2004, the announcement was made that Washington, DC was getting a baseball club, it was a natural transition for me – and as luck would have it, I could dump the American League altogether and get myself a National League team. I’ve been hooked ever since and despite their lackluster record in DC so far, the Nats are my team now and I never again want to ever acknowledge that the Yankees matter.

3. I do have other teams I follow because I either always have or have found something worth keeping track of: (1) The Los Angeles Dodgers – the Dodgers were my dad’s National League team so they’ve stuck with me. (2) The Pittsburgh Pirates – I loved Andy Van Slyke, Doug Drabek and the early 1990’s Pirates. It breaks my heart to see them as the joke they are today. (3) The Houston Astros– the Astros are the parent club of my local A-ball affiliate here in Troy, NY (the Tri-City ValleyCats) so I follow them and the players that come through Troy. (4) The Baltimore Orioles – essentially leftover from my mom’s rooting interest.

4. I follow some players as well – players who I believe are great players or great ambassadors for the game of baseball. Right now they are Ken Griffey Jr., Ichiro Suzuki, Brad Ausmus, Jason Varitek, Dustin Pedroia, Derek Jeter and there are more I’m sure I’ll pine about in the weeks, months and years to come (provided I continue on that long). Historical players that were my favorites for various reasons: Josh Gibson, Satchel Paige, Sandy Koufax, Cal Ripken Jr.,Walter Johnson, Mike Schmidt, George Brett and others.

5. I play baseball in an amateur league in based in the Albany, NY area and I reserve the right to self indulge every now and then and talk about my experiences on the diamond myself – both past (high-school, college, semi-pro and amateur) and present; perhaps even future.

So that’s it.

I also have a wife and three kids (my oldest son who is six recently went to his first-ever Major League game – April 19th: Nationals v. Marlins, pictured above) and I may talk about them from time-to-time as well.

At the end of the day, I hope to keep this blog about Nationals baseball, though. I really follow the Nats more than anything else. It may prove difficult over time as one with a young family and a budget to follow closely. I don’t have the MLB Extra Innings package or MLB.tv yet. But I do have XM radio and listen to most games on XM radio (by the way, after listening to most every team’s radio crew, I believe Charlie and Dave are two of the best in the business). So I’ll try to reflect on what I see and hear when I can and comment on the State of the Nationals as best as I can given my limited documentation. I’ll also pledge not to be a mouthpiece for the organization and express my thoughts as candidly as possible.

Right now, the team ispretty bad (historically bad, you might say) and I’ll offer my thoughts on how to change things for the better and hopefully by 2009 I’ll be writing about a team headed for prosperity.