Pirates Will Challenge Nationals For "Championship"

Wait, Who Plays 1B, 2B, SS, LF, CF, RF, SP, RP, Bat Boy For The Pirates?

There is an interesting “pennant race” developing that not many people are talking about: The Race For The #1 Pick In 2010. The Nationals looked like they had a stranglehold on this race, but recent events leading up to today’s trade deadline have the Nats in serious jeopardy of losing this race.

Here are the standings as of today:

Team..............................Record.........Games “Behind"

1. Washington Nationals . . . . 32-70 . . . . . . . . --
2. Kansas City Royals . . . . . . 40-61 . . . . . . . . 8.5
3. San Diego Padres . . . . . . . 41-62 . . . . . . . . 9.5
4. Cleveland Indians . . . . . . . 42-60 . . . . . . . 10
T5. Oakland Athletics . . . . . . 43-58 . . . . . . . 11.5
T5. Pittsburgh Pirates . . . . . . 43-58 . . . . . . . 11.5
T7. Baltimore Orioles . . . . . . 44-57 . . . . . . . 12.5
T7. Arizona D’backs . . . . . . . 44-57 . . . . . . . 12.5

While at first glance it looks as though the Nats have this one in the bag, in the last 10 games they actually “lost” ground in the standings by picking up one game on Arizona; two games on each of San Diego and Oakland; and three games on Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The only team they “kept pace” with is Cleveland.

We need to handicap this division and look at our chances here in “The Division of Suck”:

1. Washington Nationals. Current frontrunner and defending champions. The Nats have made losing an art form early this season. However, the lack of moves near the trade deadline gives this handicapper pause. Are the Nats serious about backing up their Strasburg pick with Bryce Harper or not? Seems to me they could be off-loading what little talent they have if they were.

2. Kansas City Royals. Perennial doormat. Always a threat in the Division of Suck and the only reason they are so far back right now was they had a torrid April going 12-10 and ending the month on top of the AL Central. In the end, I think the Royals can’t even LOSE the right way and end up a distant third in this race.

3. San Diego Padres. Pre-season favorites for the Division of Suck with the sale of the franchise up in the air and the pending Jake Peavy trade (that never happened). After a decent start though, Peavy ended up going down with an injury and hasn’t pitched since June. Now comes the rumor that the Padres lone offensive talent, Adrian Gonzalez, is about to be traded to the Red Sox. No Peavy + no Gonzalez = INSTANT CONTENDER.

4. Cleveland Indians. So much hope and so much promise. So little delivered. This team went into the season looking at the MLB playoffs, not the MLB PAYOFFS. The Indians have already traded Ryan Garko and now their ace Cliff Lee. Rumors have Victor Martinez possibly moving before 4:00 p.m. today. Can that be enough to make up 10 games in the Division of Suck standings? I think so.

5. Oakland Athletics. Well, they trade FOR Matt Holliday in the pre-season to avoid being in the Division of Suck. Now they traded AWAY Matt Holliday to win the race. Don’t know if they can make up 11 games though. They do play the Mariners a bunch of times……

6. Pittsburgh Pirates. THE DARKHORSE. Ladies and gentlemen, I challenge you to name all nine starters of Pittsburgh’s opening day roster. Go ahead. I’ll wait…… You only came up with four or five names didn’t you? Well, don’t worry, they don’t play for the Pirates anymore anyway. Any recognizable name that was on the Pirates earlier this year is now gone. Away: Freddie Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Tom Gorzellany, Adam LaRoche, that other guy you could name. Hell, even the Nationals got Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett. This team is my sleeper and YES I think they can make up a measly 11.5 games with Lastings Milledge playing LF for them now.

7. Baltimore Orioles. I think the O’s end up in last place in this division; in fact, if the Blue Jays trade Roy Haladay I think the Orioles move into the American League East and the Blue Jays move into the Division of Suck. The Orioles have way too much talent to win this division.

8. Arizona Diamondbacks. With the Rockies coming back to earth, I predict the D’backs move out of this division and into the major leagues again. Too much pitching to be here but the fact that Brandon Webb hasn’t pitched certainly helped them get here.

In the end, I still think the Nats wind up near the top. 8 ½ games clear of the next “best” team is a lot of ground to lose. Of the teams here I think the Pirates have the best shot and the Nats play the Bucs starting tonight. If the Nats can pull of the sweep of the team that apparently would sell their sister into prostitution if they could, I bet the Pirates can pull it off.

So, who do you root for here?

Collin Balester Gets Another Chance

Looks Like A Curveball - And Bally's Got A Good One

Here’s Collin Balester’s chance. He finally got the call-up last week and in his only appearance so far, he was the pitcher of record in the rain-delayed-and-shortened nightmare against the Cardinals last week. Tonight, he will not have to worry about the raindrops at Miller Park in Milwaukee.

Balester has a great shot at putting the Nats up 2-0 in the four game set because the Brewers counter with Carlos Villanueva who hasn’t made a start since last May and has struggled in 81 relief appearances since. Villanueva has pitched well against the Nationals in his career going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in five appearances but those were all in relief.

Balester should get help from the Nats’ big three in the middle of the order: Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham. Zimmerman is heating up as he’s 8-for-23 (.304) with three homers and five RBI over the last seven days. Read yesterday’s post about how white-hot Dunn has been but add to that a 2-for-3 night last night with a double, a walk and two RBI. Willingham is up to .298 on the season and has played better since being given the starting RF job. However, his last seven games have him on a blistering pace: 10-for-23 (.435), four homers, four doubles and 12 RBI including two grand slams in last night’s game. He’s slugging 1.130 over his past seven games.

It’s no wonder the Nationals have won six-of-eight with all of the offense being put up.

So it’s up to Balester tonight to keep it going. The Nationals are 6-7 since firing Manny Acta and 6-2 since interim manager Jim Riggleman took the team to task after losing five straight out of the gates following the All-Star break.

Hopefully Collin can get the fastball up around 94-95 like he’s been known to do early in his career. I believe the trick to holding the Brewers at bay is to mix the speeds of his pitches well. If his fastball is coming in at 94, it’d be nice to see if the stint in the minors had him working on his changeup. The Brewers have some serious pop in their lineup with the likes of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun anchoring the middle of order. Braun and (especially) Fielder can be had as long as that changeup is working. And if “Bally’s” curveball is working and he’s throwing it for strikes, the Brewers could find themselves down 2-0 in the series.

Bally’s gonna have to be good because the Nats are going with Garrett Mock tomorrow (and he’s been awful since being called up) and J.D. Martin on Thursday (and he’s making just his second career big league start).

Here’s to you Collin Balester and here’s wishing you success in your start against the Brewers tonight. Make it good and give the Nationals a tough decision to make when Jordan Zimmermann comes back off the D.L.

Adam Dunn Is Good For The Nationals - Yeah, I Said It

How Much More Does This Guy Have To Do?

One thing’s for sure, if you’re looking for someone to pin the blame for the Nationals’ awful season, you really can’t look at Adam Dunn.

Dunn’s numbers this year indicate he is having his finest year as professional baseball player. I lifted the following examples from baseball-reference.com to indicate just how effective Dunn has been:

Starting with the basics, his batting average is the best it’s ever been for a single season. "The Big Donkey" carries a lifetime .249 average and in his best season (2004) he hit .266 for Cincinnati. Right now, he’s hitting .275 and that was after an awful May (.243) and June (.241). He’s on fire this month hitting .325 for the month of July.

His homeruns have dropped off since early in the season. He looked like a sure lock for the All-Star game with 16 homers through May, but he’s hit only 9 since. Still, he’s tied for third in the National League with 25 so far and he’s on pace for 43 homers this year which would be his second best output of his career (behind 2004 when he hit 46).

In the other “triple crown” category – RBI – he sits at 71 through 98 games which puts him on pace for around 108 which would also eclipse his highest total to date (106 in 2007).

His OBP of .402 would also be a career best, his OPS of .952 would be second best in his career (.956 in 2004) and he’s hitting lefties (.261 in 2009) better than he ever has in his career.

Plus, in the 11 games since the All-Star break he’s hitting a blistering .351 with 2 homers, 3 doubles, 6 walks and 9 RBI.

But enough about the offense, let’s focus on what it was that bugged me about Dunn’s signing in the off-season – his poor defensive play in the outfield.

I don’t necessarily agree with the defensive metrics out there, typically. I find it difficult to quantify a player’s defensive abilities with numbers and standards. When judging a player’s defensive abilities, I believe the best way to evaluate them is simply to watch them play.

Admittedly, I hadn’t seen much of Dunn before purchasing the MLB.tv package back in June, but I like what I’ve seen – for the most part – and Dunn, in my opinion, hasn’t been as bad as advertised.

Speaking with fellow Nats fans on WNFF.net, I have heard that Dunn’s defensive play has been less than stellar this season, but recently it has picked up. In one of the games this weekend, Bob Carpenter and Rob Dibble (the Nats television broadcast team) made mention of Dunn working hard with Nationals coach Marquis Grissom on his play in the outfield.

Dunn’s nickname isn’t “The Big Donkey” for no reason. He’s still a lumbering oaf in LF, but at least he’s not the train-wreck I thought he’d be. I’ve seen him play fundamentally sound outfield, mostly, and his defense certainly hasn’t cost the Nationals much of anything; plus, his offense certainly more than makes up for any defensive deficiencies he may have.

Lately, there’s been talk of what to do with some of the players since the trade deadline is rapidly approaching. It was mentioned that Dunn may be shopped and that some initial offers have come through; XM-175 reported last week that an inquiry was made by the Tigers for Dunn to become a DH and another quip came across from Nats beat writer Chico Harlan: “The Nationals are said to be demanding excessively high returns for Dunn. One source called the Nationals' asking price ‘painful.’”

I’d be in favor of trading a bunch of guys: Nick Johnson makes sense since he’s a free-agent at the end of the year, Cristian Guzman seems like he’s not interested in Washington any more, Josh Willingham may be able to fetch something decent and Ron Villone and Joe Beimel provide some veteran experience out of a bullpen, plus they’re lefties.

I don’t see how trading Dunn who’s having the best year of his life and is still under contract for another year and is in the prime of his career and is apparently committed to improving his defense is such a great idea. Seems to me the Nationals benefit from having his bat in the lineup and with Nyjer Morgan playing CF next to him, Dunn’s defense won’t be nearly the hindrance we initially thought it would be.

Seems to me that if the Nationals are serious about fielding a major league lineup to score runs for this young staff, a guy like Dunn would be valuable; at least more-so than a handful of marginal prospects. Let Dunn play out this year and see where we are as an organization next year. If we really have turned a corner, perhaps Dunn will stay beyond his two-year contract and the Nats can win with him here.

Hard to believe it, but I used to hate this guy.