Predictions On This Weekend's "Battle of the Beltway" Series

I think this guy has a HUGE series this weekend

So here we go, my first official post regarding the subject at hand. I’ve decided to focus on the upcoming series with the Orioles instead of relishing the in the victory over the Red Sox.

First thing to do is to break down the pitching matchups:

Tonight it’s Ross Detwiler v. Brad Bergesen. Detwiler makes his eighth start and has yet to earn a victory (0-3 4.76) but pitched effectively in his only other appearance vs. the Orioles allowing one run on one hit over six innings. He walked four – his second highest total this season. At this point, Detwiler needs to focus on timing and mechanics. His fastball (which seems to top out at about 94) is not overpowering, so the changeup he’s been working on will need to become a useful out pitch instead of something just for show. He relies on a sinker right now which can be a deadly pitch for young pitchers who tend to leave the ball up in the zone; hopefully “Det” keeps the ball DOWN in the zone. He faces Brad Bergesen who according to sportsnet: “has a feel for pitching and the ability to log a lot of innings. [He’s] a strike-thrower with good command of his arsenal.” Bergesen (like Detwiler) also features a sinker which he needs to keep down in order to succeed. Bottom line here? Unfortunately, I like the fact that Bergesen has pitched against the tougher American League and the Nats offense has been down a little lately, so I like Bergesen and the Orioles here. Prediction: Orioles 6 – Nats: 2.

Tomorrow night features Shairon Martis v. Jeremy Guthrie. Martis was perhaps Washington’s “luckiest” pitcher, starting the season 5-0 including one of Washington’s two complete games on the season. He carried a high ERA to this point and has slipped to 5-2 and his last start against Toronto was shaky. Still, he’s only 22 and has given the Nationals some hope that they may have a middle of the rotation type starter. Jeremy Guthrie (recently featured in a great article on “The Onion”) has struggled this year. He’s described by his coaches as “crafty” and uses deception to get by. Still, he’s a right-hander and the Nats’ big hitters perform better against righties. Guthrie is also prone to the “gopher ball” as described on sportsnet so I look for Adam Dunn to homer in this game. Prediction: Nationals 9 – Orioles 6.

The series wraps up on Sunday with John Lannan v. Koji Uehara. The Orioles will face two lefties this series in Detwiler and Lannan and Lannan has pitched much better lately. He’s had four quality starts (I hate that stat) in a row and he went 8 1/3 against the Yankees and he pitched the second of the Nationals’ two complete games on June 6th against the Mets. According to baseball-reference.com, the Orioles are only hitting .263 as a team against left-handed pitching as opposed to .274 vs. righties, but they hit .300 against what they call “finesse” pitchers (which is what I would call Lannan) as opposed to only .229 against “power” pitchers. Lannan will need to mix his pitches well – exactly how he pitched against the Mets – in order to succeed here. According to the Kamado Report, Koji Uehara has a “low-grade fastball (90-91), with an array of breaking pitches, including two different splitters, a cutter and a slider” in his arsenal. The Report also postulates that Uehara is indicative of most Japanese pitchers who display much more breaking balls because of the more liberal strike zone in the Japanese leagues. Uehara will have to do his best to keep the Nats offense off-balance because the Nats do have some big sticks in the lineup. Also, according to XM-175’s show Power Alley with Seth Everett and Bill Ripken who are interviewing Orioles manager Dave Tremblay at 11:40 a.m. on June 26th (right now), Koji Uehara is in Baltimore seeing the team doctor for elbow soreness – definitely not good for a pitcher who relies so heavily on breaking stuff. This recent development may also indicate why he’s only gone more than five innings once in his last five starts. Uehara is struggling and I’d expect the Nats to take advantage early and knock Uehara out by the fourth inning if he does pitch. Prediction: Nationals 13 – Orioles 8.

I’m expecting a lot of offense this weekend. With the DH in effect, the Nationals will be able to maximize their use of both Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham who is swinging a very hot bat lately (his last ten games has him hitting .296 with 2 HR and 6 RBI) and not have to compromise their outfield defense.

Of course, the offensive output for the Nats could rely on whether or not Nick Johnson plays. Johnson was hit by a pitch in the first inning of last night’s game. The pitch hit him on the shin and it swelled up to practically a softball sized lump. He was pulled from the game and his status is still pending. Hopefully for our boys, Johnson will be able to return quickly. A hitter of Johnson’s caliber should be able to hit Guthrie and Uehara and should help generate enough runs to outscore the Orioles.

But playing American League baseball against a young pitching staff may just be what the Nats need to kick-start this offense which was firing on all cylinders at the beginning of the season.

All in all, this most recent incarnation of “The Battle of the Beltway” should be entertaining. I see a lot of offense being scored in this series and I also see our boys taking two out of three from our rivals to the north.

Me and My Blog

Well, I thought I’d go ahead and give this whole blog thing a try.

So here’s the “rules” for my blog (at least as far as rules go for blogging):

1. I am a fan of the sport of baseball first and foremost. I live close to Cooperstown, NY and I enjoy reading about and researching the historical background of the game. At the end of the day, I root for baseball to succeed everywhere it is played: from little league to the Major Leagues and everywhere in between – professional and amateur.

2. I am a fan of the Washington Nationals. Sounds weird, I know, living in Upstate NY; but that’s me. Here’s the story of how I became a Nats fan: I grew up on Cape Cod surrounded by Red Sox fans. My father’s side of the family were from New Hampshire and grew up all Red Sox fans. My father (who’s middle name is Ferris as he was named after Red Sox pitcher “Boo” Ferris) decided he wanted to be different from everyone else and decided on his own to be a Yankee fan in New Hampshire. It was made easier by the fact that the Yankees were historically the best team at the time he was born (1940’s) and continued to be even until today. My mother’s side of the family was from the Washington, DC area – and as a result they were all either Senators or Orioles fans. When the second incarnation of the Senators moved to Texas, the remainder of the family became Oriole fans. Because I identified more with the mom’s family than with the dad’s family, I became a Redskins, Capitals and Bullets fan; but my father was the one who really liked baseball and got me into the sport I love so much today, so I decided to take on the Yankees as my favorite team, despite not liking the American League style of play. The 1980’s were some really lean years for the Yankees and the Red Sox fans (most of whom I considered “friends”) really let me have it (despite the fact that even then, they had a 60+ year drought of championships). I finally got my day in the sun in 1996 when the Yankees won it all and built a team with a core group of guys who were really worth rooting for: Jeter, Williams, Pettitte, Rivera, O’Neill, Martinez, etc. Then the downward spiral began. They started trading away their good young players and pillaging other teams by buying up superstars. They offended my sense of fair play. They cobbled together rosters with big names and no substance. They spent like drunken sailors and failed to care about the sport in general (a practice ongoing today). It got to the point where I actually rooted FOR THE RED SOX in 2003 because I was just so sick of it by that point. It was then I knew I needed a change. So in 2004, the announcement was made that Washington, DC was getting a baseball club, it was a natural transition for me – and as luck would have it, I could dump the American League altogether and get myself a National League team. I’ve been hooked ever since and despite their lackluster record in DC so far, the Nats are my team now and I never again want to ever acknowledge that the Yankees matter.

3. I do have other teams I follow because I either always have or have found something worth keeping track of: (1) The Los Angeles Dodgers – the Dodgers were my dad’s National League team so they’ve stuck with me. (2) The Pittsburgh Pirates – I loved Andy Van Slyke, Doug Drabek and the early 1990’s Pirates. It breaks my heart to see them as the joke they are today. (3) The Houston Astros– the Astros are the parent club of my local A-ball affiliate here in Troy, NY (the Tri-City ValleyCats) so I follow them and the players that come through Troy. (4) The Baltimore Orioles – essentially leftover from my mom’s rooting interest.

4. I follow some players as well – players who I believe are great players or great ambassadors for the game of baseball. Right now they are Ken Griffey Jr., Ichiro Suzuki, Brad Ausmus, Jason Varitek, Dustin Pedroia, Derek Jeter and there are more I’m sure I’ll pine about in the weeks, months and years to come (provided I continue on that long). Historical players that were my favorites for various reasons: Josh Gibson, Satchel Paige, Sandy Koufax, Cal Ripken Jr.,Walter Johnson, Mike Schmidt, George Brett and others.

5. I play baseball in an amateur league in based in the Albany, NY area and I reserve the right to self indulge every now and then and talk about my experiences on the diamond myself – both past (high-school, college, semi-pro and amateur) and present; perhaps even future.

So that’s it.

I also have a wife and three kids (my oldest son who is six recently went to his first-ever Major League game – April 19th: Nationals v. Marlins, pictured above) and I may talk about them from time-to-time as well.

At the end of the day, I hope to keep this blog about Nationals baseball, though. I really follow the Nats more than anything else. It may prove difficult over time as one with a young family and a budget to follow closely. I don’t have the MLB Extra Innings package or MLB.tv yet. But I do have XM radio and listen to most games on XM radio (by the way, after listening to most every team’s radio crew, I believe Charlie and Dave are two of the best in the business). So I’ll try to reflect on what I see and hear when I can and comment on the State of the Nationals as best as I can given my limited documentation. I’ll also pledge not to be a mouthpiece for the organization and express my thoughts as candidly as possible.

Right now, the team ispretty bad (historically bad, you might say) and I’ll offer my thoughts on how to change things for the better and hopefully by 2009 I’ll be writing about a team headed for prosperity.