I think this guy has a HUGE series this weekend
So here we go, my first official post regarding the subject at hand. I’ve decided to focus on the upcoming series with the Orioles instead of relishing the in the victory over the Red Sox.
First thing to do is to break down the pitching matchups:
Tonight it’s Ross Detwiler v. Brad Bergesen. Detwiler makes his eighth start and has yet to earn a victory (0-3 4.76) but pitched effectively in his only other appearance vs. the Orioles allowing one run on one hit over six innings. He walked four – his second highest total this season. At this point, Detwiler needs to focus on timing and mechanics. His fastball (which seems to top out at about 94) is not overpowering, so the changeup he’s been working on will need to become a useful out pitch instead of something just for show. He relies on a sinker right now which can be a deadly pitch for young pitchers who tend to leave the ball up in the zone; hopefully “Det” keeps the ball DOWN in the zone. He faces Brad Bergesen who according to sportsnet: “has a feel for pitching and the ability to log a lot of innings. [He’s] a strike-thrower with good command of his arsenal.” Bergesen (like Detwiler) also features a sinker which he needs to keep down in order to succeed. Bottom line here? Unfortunately, I like the fact that Bergesen has pitched against the tougher American League and the Nats offense has been down a little lately, so I like Bergesen and the Orioles here. Prediction: Orioles 6 – Nats: 2.
Tomorrow night features Shairon Martis v. Jeremy Guthrie. Martis was perhaps Washington’s “luckiest” pitcher, starting the season 5-0 including one of Washington’s two complete games on the season. He carried a high ERA to this point and has slipped to 5-2 and his last start against Toronto was shaky. Still, he’s only 22 and has given the Nationals some hope that they may have a middle of the rotation type starter. Jeremy Guthrie (recently featured in a great article on “The Onion”) has struggled this year. He’s described by his coaches as “crafty” and uses deception to get by. Still, he’s a right-hander and the Nats’ big hitters perform better against righties. Guthrie is also prone to the “gopher ball” as described on sportsnet so I look for Adam Dunn to homer in this game. Prediction: Nationals 9 – Orioles 6.
The series wraps up on Sunday with John Lannan v. Koji Uehara. The Orioles will face two lefties this series in Detwiler and Lannan and Lannan has pitched much better lately. He’s had four quality starts (I hate that stat) in a row and he went 8 1/3 against the Yankees and he pitched the second of the Nationals’ two complete games on June 6th against the Mets. According to baseball-reference.com, the Orioles are only hitting .263 as a team against left-handed pitching as opposed to .274 vs. righties, but they hit .300 against what they call “finesse” pitchers (which is what I would call Lannan) as opposed to only .229 against “power” pitchers. Lannan will need to mix his pitches well – exactly how he pitched against the Mets – in order to succeed here. According to the Kamado Report, Koji Uehara has a “low-grade fastball (90-91), with an array of breaking pitches, including two different splitters, a cutter and a slider” in his arsenal. The Report also postulates that Uehara is indicative of most Japanese pitchers who display much more breaking balls because of the more liberal strike zone in the Japanese leagues. Uehara will have to do his best to keep the Nats offense off-balance because the Nats do have some big sticks in the lineup. Also, according to XM-175’s show Power Alley with Seth Everett and Bill Ripken who are interviewing Orioles manager Dave Tremblay at 11:40 a.m. on June 26th (right now), Koji Uehara is in Baltimore seeing the team doctor for elbow soreness – definitely not good for a pitcher who relies so heavily on breaking stuff. This recent development may also indicate why he’s only gone more than five innings once in his last five starts. Uehara is struggling and I’d expect the Nats to take advantage early and knock Uehara out by the fourth inning if he does pitch. Prediction: Nationals 13 – Orioles 8.
I’m expecting a lot of offense this weekend. With the DH in effect, the Nationals will be able to maximize their use of both Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham who is swinging a very hot bat lately (his last ten games has him hitting .296 with 2 HR and 6 RBI) and not have to compromise their outfield defense.
Of course, the offensive output for the Nats could rely on whether or not Nick Johnson plays. Johnson was hit by a pitch in the first inning of last night’s game. The pitch hit him on the shin and it swelled up to practically a softball sized lump. He was pulled from the game and his status is still pending. Hopefully for our boys, Johnson will be able to return quickly. A hitter of Johnson’s caliber should be able to hit Guthrie and Uehara and should help generate enough runs to outscore the Orioles.
But playing American League baseball against a young pitching staff may just be what the Nats need to kick-start this offense which was firing on all cylinders at the beginning of the season.
All in all, this most recent incarnation of “The Battle of the Beltway” should be entertaining. I see a lot of offense being scored in this series and I also see our boys taking two out of three from our rivals to the north.
First thing to do is to break down the pitching matchups:
Tonight it’s Ross Detwiler v. Brad Bergesen. Detwiler makes his eighth start and has yet to earn a victory (0-3 4.76) but pitched effectively in his only other appearance vs. the Orioles allowing one run on one hit over six innings. He walked four – his second highest total this season. At this point, Detwiler needs to focus on timing and mechanics. His fastball (which seems to top out at about 94) is not overpowering, so the changeup he’s been working on will need to become a useful out pitch instead of something just for show. He relies on a sinker right now which can be a deadly pitch for young pitchers who tend to leave the ball up in the zone; hopefully “Det” keeps the ball DOWN in the zone. He faces Brad Bergesen who according to sportsnet: “has a feel for pitching and the ability to log a lot of innings. [He’s] a strike-thrower with good command of his arsenal.” Bergesen (like Detwiler) also features a sinker which he needs to keep down in order to succeed. Bottom line here? Unfortunately, I like the fact that Bergesen has pitched against the tougher American League and the Nats offense has been down a little lately, so I like Bergesen and the Orioles here. Prediction: Orioles 6 – Nats: 2.
Tomorrow night features Shairon Martis v. Jeremy Guthrie. Martis was perhaps Washington’s “luckiest” pitcher, starting the season 5-0 including one of Washington’s two complete games on the season. He carried a high ERA to this point and has slipped to 5-2 and his last start against Toronto was shaky. Still, he’s only 22 and has given the Nationals some hope that they may have a middle of the rotation type starter. Jeremy Guthrie (recently featured in a great article on “The Onion”) has struggled this year. He’s described by his coaches as “crafty” and uses deception to get by. Still, he’s a right-hander and the Nats’ big hitters perform better against righties. Guthrie is also prone to the “gopher ball” as described on sportsnet so I look for Adam Dunn to homer in this game. Prediction: Nationals 9 – Orioles 6.
The series wraps up on Sunday with John Lannan v. Koji Uehara. The Orioles will face two lefties this series in Detwiler and Lannan and Lannan has pitched much better lately. He’s had four quality starts (I hate that stat) in a row and he went 8 1/3 against the Yankees and he pitched the second of the Nationals’ two complete games on June 6th against the Mets. According to baseball-reference.com, the Orioles are only hitting .263 as a team against left-handed pitching as opposed to .274 vs. righties, but they hit .300 against what they call “finesse” pitchers (which is what I would call Lannan) as opposed to only .229 against “power” pitchers. Lannan will need to mix his pitches well – exactly how he pitched against the Mets – in order to succeed here. According to the Kamado Report, Koji Uehara has a “low-grade fastball (90-91), with an array of breaking pitches, including two different splitters, a cutter and a slider” in his arsenal. The Report also postulates that Uehara is indicative of most Japanese pitchers who display much more breaking balls because of the more liberal strike zone in the Japanese leagues. Uehara will have to do his best to keep the Nats offense off-balance because the Nats do have some big sticks in the lineup. Also, according to XM-175’s show Power Alley with Seth Everett and Bill Ripken who are interviewing Orioles manager Dave Tremblay at 11:40 a.m. on June 26th (right now), Koji Uehara is in Baltimore seeing the team doctor for elbow soreness – definitely not good for a pitcher who relies so heavily on breaking stuff. This recent development may also indicate why he’s only gone more than five innings once in his last five starts. Uehara is struggling and I’d expect the Nats to take advantage early and knock Uehara out by the fourth inning if he does pitch. Prediction: Nationals 13 – Orioles 8.
I’m expecting a lot of offense this weekend. With the DH in effect, the Nationals will be able to maximize their use of both Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham who is swinging a very hot bat lately (his last ten games has him hitting .296 with 2 HR and 6 RBI) and not have to compromise their outfield defense.
Of course, the offensive output for the Nats could rely on whether or not Nick Johnson plays. Johnson was hit by a pitch in the first inning of last night’s game. The pitch hit him on the shin and it swelled up to practically a softball sized lump. He was pulled from the game and his status is still pending. Hopefully for our boys, Johnson will be able to return quickly. A hitter of Johnson’s caliber should be able to hit Guthrie and Uehara and should help generate enough runs to outscore the Orioles.
But playing American League baseball against a young pitching staff may just be what the Nats need to kick-start this offense which was firing on all cylinders at the beginning of the season.
All in all, this most recent incarnation of “The Battle of the Beltway” should be entertaining. I see a lot of offense being scored in this series and I also see our boys taking two out of three from our rivals to the north.
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