A Pre-Spring Training 2010 Preview
Well, it’s time to get back into the swing of things. I’ve taken a lot of time off because my life took a lot of my time and, quite frankly, I find bitching about baseball in January to be a tiring and tedious task.
We are, however, well into February – teams report to spring training soon and pitchers and catchers report later this week. Let’s take a look at the roster as it looks right now for the Nationals. This is not a scientific study, rather an obviously biased analysis by yours truly in an effort to see if we really improved over last season. Let’s look position by position, shall we?
Starting Pitching:
With the additions of Chien-Ming Wang (to be officially announced on Friday) and Jason Marquis, the Nats have added a couple of names that sound familiar to most baseball fans around the country. Marquis is a journeyman innings-eater – something the Nats desperately needed (especially as long as it was not Livan Hernandez…again). He doesn’t really turn the Nats’ rotation into a World Series contender but he should be able to help alleviate some pressure on the bullpen. Plus, we had Daniel Cabrera on the opening day roster last year and Marquis is DEFINITELY better than Cabrera.
Wang is the wild-card. If he’s fully recovered from Tommy John’s surgery he should be able to anchor this rotation and give the Nats an “ace” with a recognizable name. In a perfect world, a healthy Wang isn’t “ace” material, but he’s loads better than what we have. His biggest problem could be that as a sinkerball pitcher he will rely heavily on infield defense….but we’ll cover that later.
Rounding out the rotation are John Lannan and……well……..I don’t know. Could be Ross Detwiler and Collin Balester. Is Scott Olsen healthy enough to pitch? Beats me. Then there’s J.D. Martin (former #1 pick of the Indians, recovering from injury), Craig Stammen who showed he’s a bona fide starter as long as he only has to go through a lineup twice. Garrett Mock? Shairon Martis? Is Matt Chico really back? Can Stephen Strasburg step up in his first professional season and make it all the way to the bigs (boy would THAT help)? One thing’s for certain, Jordan Zimmermann will not pitch for the Nats in 2010 and that’s a big loss.
Bottom line for #’s 4 and 5 are that they will be filled by players with more questions than answers – not good for a major league starting rotation. All-in-all, I believe this is an improved rotation over last year – including the loss of Jordan Zimmermann.
Bull Pen:
This where the Nats are VASTLY improved over last year (and they’ll need to be if they can’t answer the questions about the starting rotation). Gone are bums like Saul Rivera and Joel Hanrahan and in their places are players like Brian Bruney (formerly of the Yankees) and Matt Capps (formerly of the Pirates) and both will compete for closing duties – the good news is that it appears as though both are capable. Plus Jason Bergmann has seemed to find his niche in long relief/spot starter duties and pitched well last year and lefty Sean Burnett proved to be extremely effective after the Nats picked him up mid-season last year. Tyler Clippard is also a converted starter and the Nats certainly seemed to help him find his role in the bull pen.
I’m betting the effective pitchers that don’t make the rotation will help round out the bull pen. My top guesses are Collin Balester and Garrett Mock. It is my belief that this is the key area of improvement for the Nats so far this off-season and should equate to a few more wins and a lot less blown saves.
Catcher:
As with the Nats last year, the question here is: can Jesus Flores stay healthy (please God, let that be a “yes”). If healthy, Flores is good enough to be the everyday catcher on a lot of rosters.
If he can’t, at least the Nats have a future Hall of Famer to back him up: Ivan Rodriguez. I won’t call him by his accepted nickname because he’s not as heavy as he once was which is what got him his nickname in the first place. Plus, I believe that his Hall of Fame career is enhanced by steroids, but I have no proof – just a hunch I have. I only hope that he can play effectively when called upon. Besides, even at his advanced age, he’s a better alternative to Wil Nieves as a starter (though Nieves makes a good backup).
So the question is, are the Nats better off with Rodriguez than they were with Josh Bard? I think so, so we’ll call it a slight improvement over last year.
First Base:
I railed on him last year, but I think the Nats’ first base prospects are trending upward this year since we have Adam Dunn on the roster and playing first for an entire year. Dunn really showed improvement defensively over the course of the second half of the season last year and turned into a – dare I say it – EFFECTIVE first baseman. I thought it would be a dumpster fire after watching Dunn play 1B in the World Baseball Classic, but he really showed he can do it. He won’t be perfect, but he’s solid over there and he’s loads better than awaiting the inevitable Nick Johnson injury. If nothing else, Dunn provides stability, for once, at the first sack – plus, his 40 homers a year helps too.
To sum up: the Nats have improved at 1B as well.
Second Base:
It looks like it’s new acquisition Adam Kennedy’s job. I would rather the Nats have signed Felipe Lopez but Kennedy was just as good as any other free agent 2B on the market this off-season. Kennedy will certainly improve the defense up the middle over the departed Ronnie Belliard. Offensively, the Nats may have taken a step back with Kennedy but they have improved defensively. Plus, all he has to do is outplay Alberto Gonzalez to keep his job. Quite honestly, if he can’t outplay Alberto Gonzalez, he doesn’t deserve to have a job.
The Nats get a push at 2B.
Shortstop:
This one’s a toughy. Was Cristian Guzman hurt all last year or are his skills in serious decline? My feeling is that it’s a combination of both and this could be the year that Ian Desmond gets his shot. Scouts have been saying that Desmond is ready at the plate but he still needs some seasoning as a shortstop. My argument? How is a rough-around-the-edges Desmond any worse than an injured and declining Guzman? Give him the job and let Guzman play out his contract as a backup. The defense is improved up the middle with Kennedy at 2B anyway, let the kid play and he’ll work it out.
Either way, if Guzman is healthier than last year or if Desmond wins the starting job, the Nats are in better shape at SS than they were last year.
Third Base:
Ryan Zimmerman went to the All Star game, won a Gold Glove and had career highs in homeruns and runs scored and had an OPS of .888 – that is all.
The unfortunate side effect of this is that I don’t see the Nationals IMPROVING at 3B, but at least I can say “they’re o.k.” in the 3B department. If Zimm gets hurt, we’re screwed.
Left Field:
The thought is that Josh Willingham will play LF, but rumors around the mill are that Willingham could be a player they would move to improve the rotation. Willingham plays a decent LF and has pedestrian numbers (.267, 24, 61) for a corner outfielder. He’s a major leaguer, just not a superstar.
Basically, LF is a push from 2009 unless they trade Willingham and plug in one of the AAA guys like Justin Maxwell or the steady (if not spectacular) Willie Harris, then LF is a big question mark.
Center Field:
Last year we had the young, upstart Lastings Milledge playing CF. I felt bad for Milledge in the sense that he never really was a CFer to begin with and he was put in a bad spot. This year, however, we have a guy with a little less power but a whole lot more speed and defensive ability – Nyjer Morgan. Morgan allows us to keep players with some deficiencies in the outfield (like Willingham) because he makes up the ground those players can’t cover. Morgan also has the plus-type speed for a leadoff hitter but he does need to get on base more frequently – I think if Morgan struggles he’s best suited as an 8-hitter.
I feel as though the Nats improved at CF over 2009 and if Morgan can move up to the leadoff spat and put up the types of performances that allow him to stay there, the Nats have made a SERIOUS upgrade at CF.
Right Field:
In 2009, the enigmatic Elijah Dukes patrolled right field for the Nationals. It appears as though Dukes will be counted on for 2010 as well (as long as the roster remains the same). Dukes has the kind of potential that makes you think he could be the next Vladimir Guerrero – but he has the type of personal discipline that makes you think he’s the next Daryl Strawberry. Dukes looks like he’s straightened out his life which could be his biggest accomplishment – because if his mind is clear and he focuses on baseball, the Nats have a potential superstar in Dukes.
RF – 2010 = 2009 with significant room for improvement without making a roster change.
Bench:
As constructed, the Nats bench looks solid. The versatile Willie Harris really could be a starter and could push for the LF job and whoever loses out the SS battle (either Desmond or Guzman) will be a great addition to the bench. The Nats also have some solid pinch-hitting bats in Mike Morse and Justin Maxwell as well as some defensive specialists in Alberto Gonzalez, Wil Nieves and Roger Bernadina (none of whom should be counted on for their bats). It’s a versatile – if not spectacular – bench.
Braintrust:
This is the area where the Nats improved the most. It really appeared as though Manny Acta was in way over his head as a rookie manager and had no idea how tough it would really be in DC. I don’t think Acta was as bad a manager as some Nats fans feel he is, but he certainly seemed overwhelmed by what transpired under his leadership. Riggleman is a grizzled veteran of managing baseball and should be able to handle the task of building a team from the ground up.
Riggleman will be aided by new rookie general manager Mike Rizzo. Rizzo replaced Jim Bowden who reminded me more of a New York City “Rolex” watch street vendor. I don’t expect Rizzo to build Rome in a day, but judging by the moves he’s made this off-season you can say Rome has had the ground-breaking ceremony. For the first time since their arrival in Washington, it appears as though the Nats have a clear focus and direction – something most successful major league franchises have – which is nice. It finally feels as though we have a major league team to root for and Rizzo needs to be given credit for providing it.
Overall, I think the Nats have the pieces in place to win far more games than they did last year. The trick is, the Nats really avoided that major injury last year – except for Jordan Zimmermann and if you claim your biggest injury that crippled your team last year was to your rookie starting pitcher, you had bigger problems than the injury itself. I can think of two players who – if they spend significant time on the Disabled List – would ruin any chances of making any marked improvement over last year’s record: Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn. However, the rest of the roster seems to be able to sustain itself if the starter goes down (I guess that could also be seen as a drawback…).
The Nats will certainly need a few things to fall their way in order to avoid a last-place finish again this year, but the Braves did try to unload Derek Lowe, they did trade away Javier Vazquez for what essentially amounts to a 4th outfielder on most rosters (Melky Cabrera) and now comes word that Jair Jurrjens may be missing significant time. They could be hitching their wagons to the oft-injured Tim Hudson and the second year phenom Tommy Hanson.
The Mets are a mess organizationally. Beyond Johan Santana, the staff is a grease fire. The position players have tons of question marks. The Mets could be poised for a serious decline this year. And one never knows about whether or not the Marlins can continue to sustain success while selling off all usable parts for prospects.
As constructed, I believe the Nats have the potential to win 70 or so games this year – or at least avoid losing 100+ games for the third straight year. In any event, I’m ready to get Spring Training out of the way and get into playing meaningful baseball again.
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