Friday, July 10, 2009

Have We Hit Rock Bottom?



These Guys Have Seen Enough


Nationals fans have been fed up for a while.

Finally, the fans got someone with a voice and a platform on which to broadcast their frustrations. Last night after dropping a very winnable game in Houston, Nationals color analyst Rob Dibble expressed anger and frustration at the level of play he sees on a nightly basis. In the NatsTown blogosphere, it was what we were waiting for since Dibble was hired.

"This isn't a Major League baseball team I'm watching out here....It's pathetic. I've never seen a team that is ok with losing....Some guys are mailing it in, and it's hard to watch,” said Dibble. He went on, but those are the essentials of his argument.

After Dibble finished his diatribe, Ray Knight actually asked to bring Dibble back on the air to discuss his observations and some thought that Knight was going to argue with Dibble. But to our surprise, he agreed with Dibble and added fuel to the fire.

"You know what I would do? I'd clean house. When guys don't make plays defensively I'd sit ‘em on the bench. I'd give a guy a chance to play,” added Knight. “And I'm talking about for a week, I don't care if you're hitting .320, I don't care what you're doing, I'm tired of seeing it too. We're just two former players that busted our butts, and we're here working for a company that you expect a fine product. I don't know who exactly you're feeling it about. I'm feeling it about certain people. But Manny has to make that decisions, or [Mike] Rizzo. If you think that there's a player out there not defining the position....Take shortstop. Balls are going up the middle, knocked down, erratic type play. It looks like, to me, Goozie's mind is somewhere else. He's the guy I'm most disappointed in."

So while Dibble was careful about not singling out a given player, Knight was more than willing to throw All-Star shortstop Cristian Guzman under the bus.

Some in the blogosphere are hailing Dibble and Knight for finally showing the balls it takes to rip this franchise when it needs it the most – a characteristic that many wish field manager Manny Acta would show. In fact, there is a craving to fire Acta and replace him with either Knight or Dibble immediately.

Problem is, a manager just can’t call out a player in the media like that. It’s ineffective at best and counterproductive at worst. Baseball’s economic climate has bred a society of primadonnas with fragile egos and huge salaries. If Acta were to say the same stuff about Guzman as Knight did, he might as well send him to AAA until he can be traded, because Guzman isn’t likely to play hard for Acta ever again. Further, if I was a player in the clubhouse watching my manager rip into my All-Star like that, I’d be less likely to want to play for him as well.

What would be nice, however, is to see Acta do something like Charlie Manuel did with Jimmy Rollins in Philadelphia. He didn’t go in front of cameras and call him out. Manuel pulled Rollins into his office, sat him down and explained to him that he was going to bench him for a few days as a means of discipline for what he felt was poor play in the field and a lack of effort. Rollins was the one who went to the media and explained his situation – NOT Manuel.

Dibble and Knight are PERFECT in their roles as analysts. Analysts can say and do things that managers really can’t. They can act as the voice of the manager or the voice of the fans and they have a forum in which to do so.

So for those who would clamor for Knight to be the manager, just remember that he was a disaster in Cincinnati and hasn’t been asked to manage again anywhere else and Dibble hasn’t even been a pitching coach in the minors, let alone a manager.

There’s more to being a manager than having a fiery attitude; in fact, there are those who would say that the fiery attitude doesn’t translate to the modern player anymore. So be careful what you wish for.

I agree that Manny Acta either needs to change his methodology immediately or he should be fired for incompetence. But I’m not in favor of hiring Dibble or Knight to replace him.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Talkin' Trade - Would The Nats Really Move Adam Dunn?


Is The Big Donkey On The Move?
The Washington Nationals are in the midst of an “EPIC FAIL” of a season in 2009; so naturally with the trade deadline approaching, there’s a lot of speculation as to what the Nats will do with some of their veteran players with high value – and some fairly good discussion can be viewed at WNFF.net (link provided in the right-hand toolbar).

A few names have surfaced and most Nats fans can agree on certain players being moved: Cristian Guzman and Nick Johnson are thought to be the two of the more tradable players who could command a decent return and most Nats fans would take a cup of coffee and a dozen Krispy Kremes for Austin Kearns.

The two names that are intriguing and seem to cause NatsTown to divide are Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn. Willingham has a reputation for a high-ceiling power hitter who hasn’t put it together yet due to injury – in my opinion, this makes him less tradable because his value is really low. Dunn has hit 40+ homers for five straight seasons and is on pace for more than 40 again this year and would be especially welcomed in the American League for a team in need of a designated hitter – trade value is high.

I believe the Nats are in a real bind here and perhaps the decision on what to do with Dunn will largely affect how they go about building a team for contention sooner rather than later. On top of that, Acting GM Mike Rizzo recently said, “we are not trading Dunn. That’s as definitive as I can be.”

The Nats adopted the philosophy of developing young pitching here at the major league level. My belief is that in order to do that you need to have a solid defense behind these pitchers as well as a solid bullpen. With that, they decided to go with a young catcher (Jesus Flores) who was a Rule V acquisition from three years ago, an aging shortstop (Guzman) who played many years on turf and actually plays older than he really is, a question mark at 2B (which still hasn’t been resolved) and a wealth of corner outfielders, none of whom can play CF with any amount of competence except for Willie Harris whom they benched in favor of Lastings Milledge.

So instead of working on helping these young pitchers out, the front office (under the then guidance of Jim Bowden) decided to stockpile MORE corner outfielders only this time the players they acquired played questionable defense at best (Willingham and Dunn) and failed to address the bullpen until after Bowden resigned under allegations of improprieties.

So it seemed like Dunn and Willingham didn’t fit and I, point in fact, objected to the signing of Adam Dunn.

However, I have since softened my stance and can see where a player like Dunn could actually be valuable to the Nats for the long-term. The Nats started the house-cleaning little more than a week ago by trading away Milledge and the remarkably inconsistent Joel Hanrahan from the bullpen to Pittsburgh for Nyjer Morgan who plays a lights-out centerfield and Sean Burnett who may not have closer material, but certainly isn’t quite the rollercoaster ride Hanrahan was.

So now with Morgan in CF and if Elijah Dukes can stay healthy and play at a consistently high level in RF, Adam Dunn – even with his defensive liabilities attached – becomes much easier to deal with in LF making it possible to trade Willingham instead of Johnson since Johnson plays a much better 1B than Willingham and their trade values are about the same.

If the Nats can make a leadoff hitter out of either Morgan, Anderson Hernandez or Alberto Gonzalez, they’d have a bona fide, major league lineup and maximize their offensive production as long as they still have Johnson, Zimmerman, Dunn, Dukes hitting 2 – 5 in the lineup.

The lingering issue is what to do with Dunn long term. I still don’t think the Nats are in any danger of winning a World Series in 2010 which is when Dunn’s contract expires. But, I think if the Nats can show improvement during the second half of this season and through the first half of next season, re-signing Dunn for beyond 2010 is in the best interests of the Nats. Dunn has proven to be force in the lineup and there is talk that he’s a great clubhouse presence and a leader-type that the Nats need.

Besides, the young staff will need offense at some point and with Morgan and Dukes covering a ton of ground in the outfield, the Nats can get away with Dunn in LF and let him do what he does best – produce runs.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Is Scott Olsen Back?


Thanks For Yesterday Scott. Please Keep It Going.


Let me get this off to a positive start: Scott Olsen pitched a helluva game yesterday. Anytime a manager can trot his starting pitcher out to the mound for 8 2/3 innings he has to feel blessed. That’s exactly what Scott Olsen gave many Acta yesterday.

With that said, as I break down the performance yesterday, I am alarmed by a couple of things: He walked five batters and he seemed to miss the target with alarming frequency. Now, you readers may say, “but he still went 8 2/3 and if Manny had pulled him before letting him start the ninth inning, he would only have given up one run.” True. But he had a few things working for him.

First of all, Atlanta ranks below the National League average in runs per game. So Olsen wasn’t facing a high-powered offense. In fact, Atlanta’s OPS+ on the season is at 94 and Atlanta’s SLG% is well below league average. Atlanta also ranks below the league average in walks.

That said, Olsen seemed to leave pitches way up in the zone more frequently than I’d like to see.

Olsen's Pitch Chart. 75:41 Strikes:Balls.

During the first few innings he seemed to turn around and look toward the skies over centerfield in disgust even when striking out batters because he seemed to be missing catcher Josh Bard’s targets frequently – and missing up, where typically a guy who maxes out at 94 MPH in velocity will get killed.

Luckily for Olsen, he was facing a relatively weaker hitting Atlanta lineup. If that was the Dodgers, Phillies or Rockies he might not have fared nearly as well.

But despite the control issues, Olsen’s velocity seems to be back to where it was before the Nationals traded for him. This comes as encouraging news because mechanics and location can be taught, velocity must come naturally and a lefty tossing 86 MPH (like Olsen was before going on the DL) is a recipe for disaster soufflĂ© given Olsen’s lack of control.

Hopefully we’ll continue to see the velocity and we can work on his control. Because if he throws as hard as he did yesterday, Olsen would make a very solid starter for this franchise for years to come.