Talkin' Trade - Would The Nats Really Move Adam Dunn?

Is The Big Donkey On The Move?

The Washington Nationals are in the midst of an “EPIC FAIL” of a season in 2009; so naturally with the trade deadline approaching, there’s a lot of speculation as to what the Nats will do with some of their veteran players with high value – and some fairly good discussion can be viewed at WNFF.net (link provided in the right-hand toolbar).

A few names have surfaced and most Nats fans can agree on certain players being moved: Cristian Guzman and Nick Johnson are thought to be the two of the more tradable players who could command a decent return and most Nats fans would take a cup of coffee and a dozen Krispy Kremes for Austin Kearns.

The two names that are intriguing and seem to cause NatsTown to divide are Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn. Willingham has a reputation for a high-ceiling power hitter who hasn’t put it together yet due to injury – in my opinion, this makes him less tradable because his value is really low. Dunn has hit 40+ homers for five straight seasons and is on pace for more than 40 again this year and would be especially welcomed in the American League for a team in need of a designated hitter – trade value is high.

I believe the Nats are in a real bind here and perhaps the decision on what to do with Dunn will largely affect how they go about building a team for contention sooner rather than later. On top of that, Acting GM Mike Rizzo recently said, “we are not trading Dunn. That’s as definitive as I can be.”

The Nats adopted the philosophy of developing young pitching here at the major league level. My belief is that in order to do that you need to have a solid defense behind these pitchers as well as a solid bullpen. With that, they decided to go with a young catcher (Jesus Flores) who was a Rule V acquisition from three years ago, an aging shortstop (Guzman) who played many years on turf and actually plays older than he really is, a question mark at 2B (which still hasn’t been resolved) and a wealth of corner outfielders, none of whom can play CF with any amount of competence except for Willie Harris whom they benched in favor of Lastings Milledge.

So instead of working on helping these young pitchers out, the front office (under the then guidance of Jim Bowden) decided to stockpile MORE corner outfielders only this time the players they acquired played questionable defense at best (Willingham and Dunn) and failed to address the bullpen until after Bowden resigned under allegations of improprieties.

So it seemed like Dunn and Willingham didn’t fit and I, point in fact, objected to the signing of Adam Dunn.

However, I have since softened my stance and can see where a player like Dunn could actually be valuable to the Nats for the long-term. The Nats started the house-cleaning little more than a week ago by trading away Milledge and the remarkably inconsistent Joel Hanrahan from the bullpen to Pittsburgh for Nyjer Morgan who plays a lights-out centerfield and Sean Burnett who may not have closer material, but certainly isn’t quite the rollercoaster ride Hanrahan was.

So now with Morgan in CF and if Elijah Dukes can stay healthy and play at a consistently high level in RF, Adam Dunn – even with his defensive liabilities attached – becomes much easier to deal with in LF making it possible to trade Willingham instead of Johnson since Johnson plays a much better 1B than Willingham and their trade values are about the same.

If the Nats can make a leadoff hitter out of either Morgan, Anderson Hernandez or Alberto Gonzalez, they’d have a bona fide, major league lineup and maximize their offensive production as long as they still have Johnson, Zimmerman, Dunn, Dukes hitting 2 – 5 in the lineup.

The lingering issue is what to do with Dunn long term. I still don’t think the Nats are in any danger of winning a World Series in 2010 which is when Dunn’s contract expires. But, I think if the Nats can show improvement during the second half of this season and through the first half of next season, re-signing Dunn for beyond 2010 is in the best interests of the Nats. Dunn has proven to be force in the lineup and there is talk that he’s a great clubhouse presence and a leader-type that the Nats need.

Besides, the young staff will need offense at some point and with Morgan and Dukes covering a ton of ground in the outfield, the Nats can get away with Dunn in LF and let him do what he does best – produce runs.